It's an Inside Job: GOP Infighting Defeats Trumpcare

House Republicans are Stuck.

If Democrats keep to their promises, the House GOP can only afford 21 of their own to not vote in favor of the current bill. Right now, at least 24 GOP electors have publicly stated they'll vote 'No,' or abstain from the voting altogether. 

House GOP have a majority, and finally a new plan that will replace Obamacare. However, their biggest barrier is their own party. After years of voting more than 60 times to repeal Obamacare over 7 years, House Speaker Paul Ryan now has every that meets the conventional criteria to pass their Trumpcare bill.

Let's skip the obvious critiques of the bill itself, like the fact that the CDO already projected that the new bill will effectively remove over 20 million people from their healthcare.

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Key Factions

GOP Leadership

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan & Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy

They desperately want to pass a plan to repeal Obamacare before the midterms. 

Super Conservatives

They're calling the House Bill, Obamacare light: "We do not agree with the fundamental 3 or 4 things [Paul] Ryan has: subsidizes, taxes, mandates and insurance bailouts. That's Obamacare, we don't want that."

Moderates

This group seeks to reinstate the measures of the ACA that provided healthcare for their lower income constituents.

It can be argued that this is where the recent town halls have influenced the most. They're concern focuses on the prospective 20+ million people expected to lose their healthcare coverage - because their constituents are very likely to be part of that 20+ million.

 Reps. Raul Labrador, R-Idaho, Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, Louie Gohmert, R-Texas, and Thomas Massie, R-Ky. (Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Newscom) ...

Reps. Raul Labrador, R-Idaho, Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, Louie Gohmert, R-Texas, and Thomas Massie, R-Ky. (Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Newscom) ...

 Freedom Caucus

NC Rep. Mark Meadows, ID Rep. Jim Jordan, OH Rep. Louie Gohmert, TX Rep. Thomas Massie

Anti-establishment voting bloc. They're partly responsible for pushing Boener out.

The Freedom Caucus cut a deal with The Leadership on 03.23.17, so look for a stricter bill now.

Their Criticism? Too many mandates. Too much Big Government. Creeping Socialism. Pretty much anything the Leadership says, they detest. Got it.

You need the vast majority of these teams to make the bill work. So the what are the chances that ACA will be repealed? Slim.

Updates

Welp. That was fast. House Leadership just pulled the bill from the floor. Look for a War of Attrition strategy here - similar to that of the "Muslim Ban." In other words, Trump & GOP leadership are most likely hoping to have opponents tire themselves out until the actual measures they want passed sneak through.